Emmergency signal. PHOTO/Courtesy
A new tool has been launched to guide early action on Africa’s rising humanitarian risks.
Unveiled by the International Rescue Committee (IRC), the Emergency Watchlist for Africa is a predictive tool designed to identify countries most at risk of worsening humanitarian crises.
The tool provides early guidance to governments, aid agencies, and partners, enabling timely interventions that can save lives.
Developed over more than a decade, the Watchlist combines 74 quantitative and qualitative indicators with insights from IRC field experts across Africa.
“For more than a decade, this tool has helped us anticipate where urgent humanitarian needs will escalate,” said David Miliband, IRC President and CEO, during the launch in February 2026.
“It has correctly identified between 85 and 95 percent of countries that would face worsening crises in the year ahead.”
Africa faces a complex mix of challenges and opportunities.
While the continent has the world’s fastest-growing working-age population, high levels of entrepreneurial activity, and economic potential, it also carries a disproportionate share of global humanitarian risks.
The 2026 Watchlist shows that 11 African countries appear among the nations at highest risk, accounting for just 8 percent of the global population but hosting a third of the world’s forcibly displaced people and a third of the world’s extreme poor, highlighting both vulnerability and urgency.
Miliband emphasized that Africa’s potential must not be overlooked even amid crises.
“Alongside conflict, poverty, and hunger lies extraordinary potential,” he said, noting that average GDP growth in the region is forecast to accelerate to 4.4 percent in 2026–27, with East Africa expected to lead global growth.
The Watchlist is intended to do more than identify risks; it is designed to guide solutions. IRC highlights three key priorities.
First, aid reform to scale high-impact interventions such as vaccination programs, simplified treatment protocols for acute malnutrition, and cash assistance.
“Cash is a proven, dignified and cost-effective way to help people in crisis,” Miliband said, pointing to evidence that expanding cash-based support could reach millions more Africans in need.
Second, the tool underscores the need to counter impunity for violence against civilians, particularly in conflict-affected regions.
The IRC cites data showing rising civilian casualties and the spread of sexual violence in areas like the Democratic Republic of Congo, where “experts estimate an epidemic of such violence,” according to Miliband.
Early action and accountability mechanisms, he added, are critical to preventing repetition of atrocities.
Third, the Watchlist stresses the importance of diplomacy and peacemaking.
Recognizing that most humanitarian crises have political roots, the tool is intended to inform early engagement by regional actors, including the African Union and IGAD, to prevent escalation and protect vulnerable populations.
The launch comes at a moment when global aid is declining and uncertainty is rising.
While African governments such as Nigeria, Ghana, and Ethiopia have tried to fill gaps in aid, fiscal constraints and high debt levels limit national responses.
The IRC notes that early intervention, guided by data and predictive analysis, is far more effective than late humanitarian response.
By providing actionable intelligence on where crises are likely to intensify, the Emergency Watchlist for Africa offers a practical blueprint for governments and partners to act before situations worsen.
“This is not just a forecast of crisis, but a blueprint for action,” Miliband said.
“Early action is cheaper than late response; prevention is more humane than repair; political engagement more effective than its humanitarian substitution.”
With this tool, the IRC aims to strengthen early-warning systems across Africa, ensuring that governments, aid agencies, and partners can respond swiftly to humanitarian risks, protect vulnerable populations, and harness the continent’s potential even in the face of adversity.
