Climate Finance Vulnerability Index (CliF-VI)
A new global index launched by the Columbia Climate School has cast a stark spotlight on Africa’s deepening climate crisis.
According to the Climate Finance Vulnerability Index (CliF-VI), 43 of the 65 countries most vulnerable to climate shocks and least equipped financially to respond are in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Developed with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, the index presents an urgent data-backed case for rethinking how and where climate finance is allocated.
At the heart of the index’s findings is a sobering picture: a continent disproportionately exposed to extreme climate events, yet trapped in cycles of debt, limited capital access, and underinvestment in adaptation.
“Africa is on the frontline of the climate change’s impact, bearing the brunt despite contributing the least. With the majority of the nations in the Red Zone located in Sub-Saharan Africa, we face a dire threat compounded by a severe lack of funding,” said William Asiko, Vice President, Africa Regional Office, The Rockefeller Foundation.
“The CliF Vulnerability Index is a game-changer, illuminating the urgent need to prioritize financing for Africa. We need this capital flowing immediately to build resilience, foster green growth, and truly champion climate-smart development, for Africa’s future and the world.”
A Tool to Close the Climate Finance Gap
The CliF-VI integrates climate exposure with a nation’s capacity to access and utilize financial resources for mitigation, recovery, and rebuilding.
Unlike traditional metrics like GDP per capita, the index presents a layered assessment: combining risk from natural hazards with financial realities like debt distress, access to capital, and governance conditions that influence lending.
Its goal is not simply to rank, but to guide donors, funders, and multilateral institutions in targeting resources where the need is most urgent and the capacity to adapt is weakest.
“Climate shocks are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many of the nations facing the highest threats are also heavily indebted, limiting their access to financial markets,” said Jeff Schlegelmilch, Associate Professor of Professional Practice of Climate and Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia Climate School.
“Traditional aid models based on GDP per capita or income level don’t capture the unique and growing risks of climate exposure. Along with limited access to capital to manage these risks, the CliF Vulnerability Index provides a more realistic picture of risk, including access to financing to address climate vulnerabilities.”
With over 2 billion people living in Red Zone countries, the stakes are high.
In Sub-Saharan Africa alone, nearly 1.2 billion people face a future where environmental shocks are escalating and financial buffers are shrinking. The index warns that without intentional investment flows, these countries risk being “one disaster away from crisis.”
Among the most vulnerable African countries across all four scenarios, which span 2050 and 2080 under both optimistic and pessimistic climate outlooks,,s are Angola, Burundi, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Lesotho, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zambia.
Why This Index Matters for Africa
For decades, African climate negotiators have argued that GDP-based aid criteria fail to reflect the realities of nations simultaneously battling climate emergencies and systemic underdevelopment.
What the CliF-VI does is back this argument with data, clearly showing that many middle-income nations or those with rapid population growth are unable to access the scale of finance needed to avert catastrophe.
“As governments around the world prepare for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development next week, the gap between development goals and the needed financing has never been larger,” said Eric Pelofsky, Vice President for Global Economic Recovery at The Rockefeller Foundation.
“The CliF Vulnerability Index launches an important conversation about the data that should drive scarce resources to vulnerable countries that are facing immense challenges in accessing financing. By using the CliF Vulnerability Index, donors and funders can prioritize support for countries that are potentially living one disaster away from crisis.”
This matters for Africa in particular, as 21 of its countries are currently in debt distress or at high risk of falling into it.
Combined with projected population growth, the continent is expected to more than double to 2.7–3.7 billion people by 2070. The need to redesign climate finance is urgent.
Without new mechanisms to channel grants, restructure debt, and expand concessional financing, the continent may be left behind in global adaptation and mitigation efforts.
A Call for Systemic Approaches
“The CliF Vulnerability Index is an excellent tool and guides the effectiveness of climate finance measures for countries facing fiscal risks and fiscal space constraints as a result of climate change,” said Saliem Fakir, Executive Director, The African Climate Foundation.
“The tool talks to the African Climate Foundation’s work on adaptation and resilience investment platforms, where we are looking to adopt more systemic approaches to adaptation in Africa for countries suffering from high debt distress. By tackling the problem of climate risk head-on through more robust fiscal measures, we hope to find innovative ways to bring fiscal relief.”
This sentiment resonates across the African development landscape, where stakeholders are increasingly calling for fiscal innovation that aligns with climate ambitions.
Index tools like CliF-VI could help de-risk investments by providing a transparent, data-backed rationale for prioritizing nations that may otherwise be overlooked.
The Role of Philanthropy in Bridging the Climate Finance Divide
While multilateral lenders and governments remain primary actors in climate financing, philanthropic institutions are increasingly shaping the agenda, especially when public funding falls short.
The Climate Finance Vulnerability Index itself is a product of such intervention, made possible through support from The Rockefeller Foundation.
The foundation’s involvement extends beyond research funding.
It advocates for a recalibration of how aid and investment are targeted to climate-vulnerable nations.
“The CliF Vulnerability Index launches an important conversation about the data that should drive scarce resources to vulnerable countries that are facing immense challenges in accessing financing,” said Eric Pelofsky, Vice President for Global Economic Recovery at The Rockefeller Foundation.
“By using the CliF Vulnerability Index, donors and funders can prioritize support for countries that are potentially living one disaster away from crisis.”
Philanthropic players can act as catalytic funders — using data tools like the CliF-VI to help de-risk investments and to direct capital where it is most urgently needed.
In the African context, foundations have played a crucial role in amplifying calls for systemic change in adaptation financing, investing in early warning systems, and supporting local solutions to climate-related poverty and displacement.
What the Index Shows — and Doesn’t
While the index does not prescribe policies, its structure suggests several clear pathways for action:
- Target Red Zone countries with debt relief tied to climate resilience outcomes.
- Shift donor strategies from GDP-based eligibility to vulnerability-based prioritization.
- Design concessional finance models that account for governance and access barriers.
- Integrate future climate scenarios to anticipate emerging hotspots, not just respond to current crises.
The tool is available through an interactive dashboard that allows users to filter countries by region, income level, and scenario, offering a practical resource for governments, multilateral lenders, and civil society groups alike.
A Moment of Reckoning
As the world prepares to debate the future of climate finance in global forums, the CliF-VI serves as both a warning and a guidepost.
It shows that Africa is not just climate-vulnerable — it is systemically under-supported.
For Africa, clarity and intention must now be matched by political will and financial action.
Explore the Index: https://financeadaptationindex.org
Download the full methodology report: https://clifvi.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Climate-Finance-Vulnerability-Index-Technical-Methodology.pdf
