From Tariffs to Taps: How geopolitics and geoeconomics are reshaping African climate philanthropy

As climate change intensifies across Africa, philanthropy is emerging as a critical force to bolster resilience, drive innovation, and support grassroots leadership.

But Africa’s climate future does not exist in isolation. It is increasingly entangled in shifting global power balances, economic realignments, and political tensions.

A new report by Africa Practice for the Climate Works Foundation, titled “Six key trends in geopolitics and geoeconomics set to affect African climate philanthropy,” reveals a continent at the nexus of a multipolar world.

Together, they reveal a continent at the crossroads of global change where trade wars, multipolar politics, migration flows, and resource disputes will determine the scale and impact of climate action.

This article unpacks these trends, illustrating how they are reshaping Africa’s place in the world and what they mean for climate philanthropy.

Geoeconomic Shifts: Trade Wars, Supply Chains, and South-South Finance

The first set of trends highlights how global economic forces are influencing climate strategies and funding in Africa.

For climate philanthropy, this means adapting to new realities to ensure that funding is effective and aligned with the continent’s evolving needs.

1. U.S. Tariff Wars Reshaping Africa’s Markets.

The first major trend is the uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, which has already begun to rattle African economies.

The report notes that U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs “has undermined existing multilateral trade pacts” and is “sounding the death knell for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which expires on 30 September 2025”.

For countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), U.S. transactional diplomacy offers both risks and rewards.

The DRC has adopted this “White House’s style of transactional diplomacy,” initially proposing to grant America access to its mineral resources in exchange for security guarantees.

The offer has since evolved, with the U.S. leveraging the prospect of investment to bring both the DRC and Rwanda to the negotiating table.

Deals are already taking shape, with politically connected firms eyeing Congolese coltan and tin mines.

Meanwhile, South Africa, long reliant on duty-free access to U.S. markets, is reeling.

Tariffs have “pummeled its steel and automotive sectors”, and Washington’s withdrawal from the Just Energy Transition Partnership has added further strain.

Pretoria is scrambling to diversify trade, courting new markets in the Middle East, East and South East Asia, and bolstering existing trade with the EU and China.

For climate philanthropy, this turbulence underscores the vulnerability of African economies to external shocks.

Philanthropic capital may be needed to cushion communities and industries disrupted by the shifting trade regimes, particularly those linked to carbon-intensive sectors like steel and coal.

The report points to the EU’s “Clean Trade and Investment Partnership (CTIP)” with South Africa as a potential model for a new kind of alliance.

2. New Trade Corridors and the Promise of AfCFTA

While U.S. policy creates uncertainty, African trade is also being reshaped by new flows of goods and services.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), often hailed as a game-changer, has yet to deliver on its promise.

Intra-African trade remains stubbornly low, constrained by “logistical barriers and political resistance”.

The report notes that UNCTAD argues that non-tariff barriers “are three times more restrictive to intra-African trade than tariffs”.

Instead, the continent is increasingly looking eastward and toward the Gulf. India, Turkey, and the UAE have all surged as trading partners.

The report notes that trade volumes with Turkey have grown nearly sevenfold in two decades, while “the UAE has also seen trade volumes increase by 87%…from USD 34.5 billion in 2019 to USD 64 billion in 2024”.

The UAE has also become the continent’s “single largest source of foreign direct investment into Africa since 2019”.

For African farmers, manufacturers, and innovators, these shifts open up fresh markets.

For philanthropists, the opportunity lies in helping small enterprises, especially in agriculture, scale up to benefit from these new corridors, while ensuring sustainable practices are embedded into the value chains.

3. BRICS+ and the Rise of South-South Finance

In a context of “declining aid budgets and transactional trade deals,” the report notes that “South-South partnerships are increasingly important for trade, investment and concessional finance”.

China has reinforced its dominance with a new “zero-tariff policy granting duty-free access to all 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations”.

Increasingly, Beijing is signaling interest in African agriculture and green commodities, from avocados to sesame, with dedicated “green lanes” for a range of commodities.

Meanwhile, Gulf investors are aggressively expanding into Africa’s mineral and energy sectors.

The report highlights that “state-backed firms from the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been making high-profile investments in critical mineral supply chains”.

Emirati firm IRH has acquired a majority stake in a major Congolese tin mine, while Saudi-backed Manara Minerals is targeting copper, nickel, and lithium assets across Zambia, Namibia, and Botswana.

This South-South dynamic offers African states alternative sources of capital, often with fewer political conditions than Western aid.

For climate philanthropy, it presents both opportunities and risks: the influx of investment could accelerate renewables and green value chains, but without careful stewardship, it could also deepen extractivism and entrench environmental harm.

Geopolitics: Alliances, Migration, and Water Wars

The geopolitical trends detailed in the report reveal how political dynamics, from new alliances to the movement of people, are intrinsically linked to climate vulnerability and resilience.

4. Multipolarity and New Political Alliances

Geopolitically, the world is becoming increasingly multipolar, and Africa is adapting.

Many governments are pursuing “non-alignment” strategies, seeking to benefit from both Washington and Beijing without being forced into one camp.

The report cites Senegal and Gabon as examples of smaller states that are “balancing relationships with different global powers”.

Senegal’s new president has been courted by both the U.S. and China, while Gabon is leveraging its manganese reserves to drive local processing while balancing U.S. and Chinese overtures for maritime security cooperation.

For philanthropists, this multipolar moment means that alliances and access points are fluid.

Building coalitions for climate action may depend on navigating these competing loyalties and identifying leaders willing to prioritize sustainable development amid great power competition.

5. Migration and Shifting Labour Markets

Migration driven by conflict, climate, and opportunity is another defining trend.

The Sudan conflict has displaced over 10 million people since 2023, creating “the largest as well as the fastest growing displacement crisis globally”.

This influx of people reshapes labor markets and puts immense strain on a host country’s resources.

The report shows that most refugees have sought safety in neighboring countries, “including Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan, with Libya, Ethiopia, Uganda, and the Central African Republic reporting smaller numbers of arrivals”.

In host countries like Egypt, refugees face limited work opportunities and rising hostility from host communities.

The report notes that Egyptian asylum policies have pushed Sudanese refugees into the informal labor market, “where job opportunities are limited, pay is low, and conditions are often exploitative”.

Crucially, climate change is amplifying these pressures.

As droughts, floods, and land degradation push people from their homes, migration will increasingly be linked to environmental stress.

The International Organization for Migration’s “Accelerating Youth-Led Action in Climate Mobility” program shows how philanthropy can support youth leaders in designing solutions for climate-driven displacement.

The program is “designed to build the leadership and technical capacity of African youth to drive climate mobility solutions, equipping them with skills in project design, advocacy, and resource mobilisation”.

6. Water Wars: The Nile as a Flashpoint.

Finally, the report warns of intensifying competition for scarce water resources.

The inauguration of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in September 2025 has reignited tensions with Egypt and Sudan over Nile water rights.

The report notes that “Previous treaties involving Egypt and Sudan (1929 and 1959) excluded Ethiopia, which does not recognise the agreements”.

This leaves no “internationally recognized governing framework

for the GERD beyond international water law.

While outright war is unlikely, the dispute risks sparking localized conflicts and could destabilize the fragile Sudanese state further.

For climate philanthropy, the GERD saga highlights the urgent need for diplomacy, dialogue, and technical solutions to manage transboundary water resources.

Supporting civil society, local water management initiatives, and evidence-based policy could help prevent water from becoming the next trigger for conflict.

What This Means for Climate Philanthropy

The six trends paint a picture of a continent where global dynamics and local realities are colliding. For climate philanthropy, the report identifies three overarching lessons:

• Flexibility is vital: Philanthropic actors must be agile, responding to sudden trade shifts, migration crises, or political realignments.
• Partnerships matter: As South-South finance grows, philanthropists should collaborate not only with Western donors but also with BRICS+ actors and regional institutions.
• Local leadership is key: Grassroots initiatives, especially those led by youth, women, and marginalized groups, must be at the heart of funding strategies, ensuring climate action is resilient, inclusive, and just.

Africa’s climate future will not be determined solely by rainfall patterns or carbon emissions.

It will be shaped by trade wars in Washington, investments from Riyadh, political maneuvering in Dakar, and water disputes in the Nile Basin.

For philanthropists, this means climate action must be as much about diplomacy, economics, and governance as it is about solar panels or mangrove restoration.

The ClimateWorks Foundation’s report makes clear that Africa is not a passive player in global shifts; it is both vulnerable to and capable of shaping them.

From coltan mines in the Congo to the GERD dam on the Nile, the continent sits at the intersection of some of the 21st century’s biggest geopolitical and geoeconomic contests.