Dried up ground./PHOTO; Pexel
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its most comprehensive environmental assessment yet, warning that the world is standing at a crossroads, one that could either lead to deepening planetary collapse or to a thriving, sustainable future.
The Global Environment Outlook, Seventh Edition (GEO-7): A Future We Choose, unveiled during the seventh session of the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi, brings together the work of 287 scientists from 82 countries.
The report finds that climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation, desertification, and pollution are already costing the planet trillions of dollars each year, a toll that will only grow under current development models.
Yet, the report argues, systemic transformation across economies, food systems, energy, materials, and waste could unlock enormous global benefits.
“The Global Environment Outlook lays out a simple choice for humanity: continue down the road to a future devastated by climate change, dwindling nature, degraded land and polluted air, or change direction to secure a healthy planet, healthy people and healthy economies. This is no choice at all,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director.
According to GEO-7, adopting whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches could deliver macroeconomic benefits of up to US$20 trillion per year by 2070, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty and hunger while preventing millions of premature deaths.
The analysis also calls for moving beyond GDP as the sole measure of progress, advocating instead for indicators that track human and natural capital.
Transformations with Trillion-Dollar Payoffs
The report projects that under transformative pathways emphasizing circular economies, renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and ecosystem restoration, global benefits will begin to appear by 2050, growing to US$100 trillion annually by the end of the century.
By mid-century, nearly 200 million people could be lifted out of undernourishment, more than 100 million out of extreme poverty, and nine million premature deaths could be avoided through reduced pollution.
Achieving such outcomes, however, will require annual investments of about US$8 trillion until 2050, including to meet net-zero targets and restore biodiversity.
“And let us not forget the world has already made so much progress: from global deals covering climate change, nature, land and biodiversity, and pollution and waste, to real-world change in the booming renewables industry, global coverage of protected areas, and the phasing out of toxic chemicals,” Andersen added.
“I call on all nations to build on this progress, invest in planetary health, and drive their economies towards a thriving, sustainable future.”
Five Systems for Change
To achieve the transformation, GEO-7 identifies five key systems that must undergo deep reform:
- Economy and finance: Redefine wealth beyond GDP; remove subsidies that harm nature; and adopt fiscal tools that reflect environmental costs.
- Materials and waste: Shift toward circular design, transparency, and sustainable consumption.
- Energy: Decarbonize supply chains, enhance efficiency, and ensure equitable access.
- Food systems: Promote healthy, sustainable diets while reducing food loss and waste.
- Environment: Scale up conservation, restoration, and climate adaptation through nature-based solutions.
The report emphasizes that these transformations must be inclusive and just, integrating Indigenous and local knowledge systems to ensure equitable outcomes and sustainable transitions.
The Cost of Inaction
The report’s data offers a stark warning: greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.5 per cent annually since 1990, hitting record highs in 2024.
The cost of extreme weather events linked to climate change has reached US$143 billion annually. Between 20 and 40 per cent of global land is now degraded, affecting over three billion people, while one million species face extinction.
Pollution remains one of the world’s deadliest challenges, causing nine million deaths each year, with air pollution alone costing the global economy US$8.1 trillion in 2019, equivalent to 6.1 per cent of global GDP.
Without urgent change, global temperatures are projected to exceed 1.5°C by the early 2030s and 2°C by the 2040s, potentially wiping out 4 per cent of global GDP by 2050 and 20 per cent by the century’s end.
A Call for Collective Action
The GEO-7 concludes with a call to action for governments, businesses, civil society, academia, and Indigenous Peoples to co-develop and co-implement integrated solutions that restore balance between people and planet.
“The report makes clear that investing in planetary health is not a cost it is the best economic decision humanity can make,” Andersen said.
If followed, the transformation pathways outlined in GEO-7 could mark the beginning of a new global economy, one that measures prosperity not just by what it produces, but by how well it protects life on Earth.
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