A drought region./PHOTO; Courtesy
A new investment by The Coca-Cola Foundation is backing a shift in how climate shocks are addressed across Africa, enabling humanitarian action to begin before floods and droughts turn into emergencies.
The funding will support the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to scale up anticipatory action in climate-vulnerable regions, allowing communities to prepare for climate hazards rather than respond after losses have already occurred.
Anticipatory action has emerged as an alternative to traditional crisis response amid a rise in climate-driven disasters across the continent.
By acting on forecasts rather than impact, the approach aims to reduce humanitarian need, protect livelihoods and lower the long-term costs of emergency response.
The first response under the expanded initiative is already underway in Somalia’s Mudug region, where seasonal forecasts indicated a high probability of poor rainfall between October and December 2025.
The warning followed two consecutive failed rainy seasons that had already devastated agro-pastoral livelihoods, dried up water sources, depleted pasture, and weakened household coping capacity.
With a third poor season expected to push food insecurity and malnutrition even higher, the IRC activated a contingency response targeting 800 households, reaching approximately 5,600 people.
The intervention includes multi-purpose cash assistance, nutrition support, and water, sanitation, and hygiene services support designed to help families prepare early and avoid harmful coping strategies such as selling productive assets or withdrawing children from school.
David Miliband, President and CEO of the IRC, said anticipatory action is increasingly essential in a climate-disrupted humanitarian landscape.
“Anticipatory action is essential to protecting lives and livelihoods before climate shocks hit, providing early and targeted cash assistance to families in need,” Miliband said.
“This collaboration with The Coca-Cola Foundation will help us scale our ‘Follow the Forecasts’ approach across hazard-prone contexts throughout Africa, which has already strengthened the resilience of communities caught in the vicious cycle of poverty, conflict and displacement exacerbated by climate change.”
At the centre of the IRC’s work is its ‘Follow the Forecasts’ model, which draws on advances in open-source, long-range seasonal forecasting to identify weather anomalies four to six months in advance.
Using this window, the organisation carries out rapid contingency planning and prepares responses that can be deployed as soon as forecast thresholds are triggered.
Once those thresholds are met, assistance can be released quickly to households most likely to be affected.
By targeting support where a specific hazard is forecast, the model helps prioritise limited resources and reduces the risk of false triggers and unspent funds, longstanding barriers to early humanitarian action.
Carlos Pagoaga, President of The Coca-Cola Foundation, said the investment reflects a deliberate shift toward prevention rather than reaction.
“Natural disasters are placing increasing strain on communities that are already vulnerable,” he said.
“The Coca-Cola Foundation has invested in early, anticipatory action to help communities prepare for climate-driven emergencies before they escalate, thus protecting livelihoods, strengthening resilience, and enabling faster recovery when disasters strike.”
While Somalia is the first confirmed country under the expanded initiative, the IRC says the funding will support anticipatory action responses in other climate-vulnerable African contexts as seasonal forecasts signal heightened risk, signalling a broader move toward preparedness as climate emergencies increasingly define Africa’s humanitarian landscape.
